Migration anticipation and preparedness (Part 1): varied practitioners’ perspectives
Jun 17, 2025 | 1:45 PM - 3:00 PMGround Floor & Floors 3-5, Niagra Building
Jun 17, 2025 | 1:45 PM - 3:00 PM
Ground Floor & Floors 3-5, Niagra Building
Description
This session explores the vast heterogeneity of approaches to migration forecasting at national and international levels. Practitioners use a large set of forecasting empirical methods, e.g. traditional time series analysis, classical econometric models using predictive factors, Bayesian models, and machine learning, and they increasingly mix these methods with qualitative approaches, based on expert elicitation. Methods depend on their policy purposes, as forecasting labour, humanitarian or mixed migration require different approaches depending on the volatility of trends, the granularity of data and the level of quantitative measurement of contextual information. Methods also depend on perspective, as forecasting outflows from the country of origin differ from predicting inflows in the country of destination. This parallel session and the discussion that follows will give an overview of the state of play of forecasting practices in a non-academic setting.
Moderator: Yves Breem, Research Project Manager, Ministry of the Interior, France
Speakers:
- Constantinos Melachrinos, Senior Analyst – Team Leader, European Union Agency for Asylum
- Alexander Kjaerum, Senior Analyst – Global Advisor, Danish Refugee Council
- Kiyoko Saito, Senior Research Fellow, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Ogata Research Institute
- Frans Alkemade, Senior Advisor, Ministry of Justice, the Netherlands
