Current developments in migration forecasting

Jun 18, 2025 | 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM

Auditoriums D138, D131, VIP C127 & Streaming Live Online

Description

Migration and migrant integration are complex, sensitive issues that dominate today’s public debate. People migrate for a variety of reasons, which are often intertwined, including environmental, political, economic, social, demographic, and family factors. Geopolitical, economic, and environmental shocks can trigger large-scale, unexpected movements across continents. Despite visible early warning signals, recent waves of mass displacement—such as the 2015/16 refugee surge and the exodus from Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022—caught many destination countries off guard. The interplay of these factors makes it difficult to anticipate migration flows, whether at the national or global level, yet anticipating future migration is key for policymaking. Forced migration, in particular, requires contingency planning and rapid adaptation of asylum and reception services. While regulated migration is somewhat easier to predict, precise forecasting is still limited. Improved capacity to anticipate migration trends is essential for informing public debate, guiding proactive responses, and strengthening migration governance. Several countries and institutions have developed tools to predict short-term forced movements and assess migration risks. This panel will review recent developments in migration forecasting and foresight worldwide and discuss their potential to support policy analysis and formulation. Moderator: Anna Triandafyllidou, Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration, Sociology Department at Toronto Metropolitan University Speakers: - Guillaume Mordant, Director for Statistics and Studies, Ministry of the Interior, France - John Wilmoth, Director, UN Population Division - Liaqat Ali, Chief Statistical Officer, Pakistan National Statistical Office - Dr. Amparo González-Ferrer, Deputy Director General for Management and Integration Pathways, Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security, and Migration, Spain - Claudio Bosco, Project Officer, JRC, European Commission

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